Sports Modelling Research

Dr. Alun Owen discusses the agenda for the Mathsport International Conference, to be held in June 2015, and highlights some of the most interesting aspects of the schedule.

As you may know from my previous postings, I lecture in statistics in Higher Education and have a research interest in the development of predictive models in sport, including football and horse racing. Well, this time of year is conference season in my line of work, and so this month I thought I’d highlight a conference I’m co-organising at Loughborough University which has a few talks which may of interest to some who subscribe to Sports Trading Network. I’m also presenting at this conference on some work I’ve been engaged with looking at predicting the probability of scoring each penalty ...

Fixed-Odds Betting and Traditional Odds

Keith Cheung has a degree in mathematics and works for Betclic Everest Group. In this article, he discusses the probabilities and odds referred to in sports betting.

In fixed-odds betting, the concept of ‘odds’ generally refers to the price, the amount the punter gets back if the bet wins. However, there is another, more traditional, definition of odds – one that can assist our understanding of probability and betting. In statistics, the odds in favour, sometimes known as just the odds, of an event is the ratio of the probability of the event occurring to the probability of the event not occuring. If p is the probability of an event occurring, then the odds for that event are given by: For example, if the probability of event A occurring is 0.4, then the odds of event ...

The Psychology of Manual Trading Sports

Mercedes Van Essen discusses the psychology of the trader; how the mind can be trained to ensure maximum chance of successful, and profitable trading.

Let’s be perfectly honest about it: Trading is often viewed as the domain of gamblers where winning is viewed as pure luck. This is even truer for the area of sports trading, where many an ignorant bystander may completely fail to understand the intricate nature of the game. For starters, any form of trading whether you bet on currencies, stocks, commodities or sports, is a high performance activity if you intend to be consistently successful at it. It requires mental acuity, nimbleness and a high degree of calm focus and detachment from the outcome. In other words: Psychology is over 90% of the ...

Optimal bets for dog and horse races

Andrew Colin PhD, works through the mathematics for how to analyse and optimise your betting on pari-mutuel and tote pools for horse and dog racing.

Given a set of probabilities for the runners in a multi-player competition, how much should you bet on each runner to maximise your expected profits? The standard reference paper for this topic was published by Isaacs over 60 years ago. Unfortunately the presentation is not always easy to follow, so this article presents an alternative approach. Suppose that a pool with runners has amounts bet by oneself, and amounts bet by the rest of the market. The true probabilities of the runners winning the race are calculated from the previous form of the runners. Let  Q  be the total proportion of the pool that is paid out. ...

Football In-Running Arbitrage Opportunities

GP Liang, a quantitative analyst of Eclipse Research, considers the arbitrage opportunities between the Asian-style bookmakers (IBC, SBO, Pinnacle, etc) during a game.

This article considers the arbitrage opportunities between the Asian-style bookmakers (IBC, SBO, Pinnacle, etc) during In-Running. With the correct prices and stakes allocations there are enough opportunities to achieve a strategy with “guaranteed profits”. However, there are still some risks, which should be considered carefully before implementation.   In-Running sports betting has becoming more popular in recent years with the advancement in technology such as live TV/data feeds  assisting the sportsbook's traders to monitor the matches closely and adjust prices quickly. Punters place their bets, hoping to earn quick cash (bets will be settled in less than two hours’ time), whilst enjoying ...

How Opta produces and develops its unique data

Opta’s former Commercial Director, Mike Strong, outline show the industry’s leading data and stats provider, compile and produce their data

Opta started out in 1998 as a supplier to the media sector originally focusing on Broadcasters, Newspapers and Digital, which increased to Professional Clubs, Betting (mainly fixtures and results), Mobile, Fantasy and Sponsors. During this period betting revenues have increased massively due to many factors; general relaxing of gaming restrictions, increased legal betting geographies, introduction of betting exchanges, 24 hour internet betting, in running betting and the general social acceptance of gambling. The betting industry has always needed quick accurate data but this growth, particularly with the in running, spawned a need for very fast data (< 5secs ) which has been ...