Fixed-Odds Betting and Traditional Odds

Keith Cheung has a degree in mathematics and works for Betclic Everest Group. In this article, he discusses the probabilities and odds referred to in sports betting.

In fixed-odds betting, the concept of ‘odds’ generally refers to the price, the amount the punter gets back if the bet wins. However, there is another, more traditional, definition of odds – one that can assist our understanding of probability and betting. In statistics, the odds in favour, sometimes known as just the odds, of an event is the ratio of the probability of the event occurring to the probability of the event not occuring. If p is the probability of an event occurring, then the odds for that event are given by: For example, if the probability of event A occurring is 0.4, then the odds of event ...

The Psychology of Manual Trading Sports

Mercedes Van Essen discusses the psychology of the trader; how the mind can be trained to ensure maximum chance of successful, and profitable trading.

Let’s be perfectly honest about it: Trading is often viewed as the domain of gamblers where winning is viewed as pure luck. This is even truer for the area of sports trading, where many an ignorant bystander may completely fail to understand the intricate nature of the game. For starters, any form of trading whether you bet on currencies, stocks, commodities or sports, is a high performance activity if you intend to be consistently successful at it. It requires mental acuity, nimbleness and a high degree of calm focus and detachment from the outcome. In other words: Psychology is over 90% of the ...

Optimal bets for dog and horse races

Andrew Colin PhD, works through the mathematics for how to analyse and optimise your betting on pari-mutuel and tote pools for horse and dog racing.

Given a set of probabilities for the runners in a multi-player competition, how much should you bet on each runner to maximise your expected profits? The standard reference paper for this topic was published by Isaacs over 60 years ago. Unfortunately the presentation is not always easy to follow, so this article presents an alternative approach. Suppose that a pool with runners has amounts bet by oneself, and amounts bet by the rest of the market. The true probabilities of the runners winning the race are calculated from the previous form of the runners. Let  Q  be the total proportion of the pool that is paid out. ...

Football In-Running Arbitrage Opportunities

GP Liang, a quantitative analyst of Eclipse Research, considers the arbitrage opportunities between the Asian-style bookmakers (IBC, SBO, Pinnacle, etc) during a game.

This article considers the arbitrage opportunities between the Asian-style bookmakers (IBC, SBO, Pinnacle, etc) during In-Running. With the correct prices and stakes allocations there are enough opportunities to achieve a strategy with “guaranteed profits”. However, there are still some risks, which should be considered carefully before implementation.   In-Running sports betting has becoming more popular in recent years with the advancement in technology such as live TV/data feeds  assisting the sportsbook's traders to monitor the matches closely and adjust prices quickly. Punters place their bets, hoping to earn quick cash (bets will be settled in less than two hours’ time), whilst enjoying ...

How Opta produces and develops its unique data

Opta’s former Commercial Director, Mike Strong, outline show the industry’s leading data and stats provider, compile and produce their data

Opta started out in 1998 as a supplier to the media sector originally focusing on Broadcasters, Newspapers and Digital, which increased to Professional Clubs, Betting (mainly fixtures and results), Mobile, Fantasy and Sponsors. During this period betting revenues have increased massively due to many factors; general relaxing of gaming restrictions, increased legal betting geographies, introduction of betting exchanges, 24 hour internet betting, in running betting and the general social acceptance of gambling. The betting industry has always needed quick accurate data but this growth, particularly with the in running, spawned a need for very fast data (< 5secs ) which has been ...

The Impact of the Point of Consumption Tax on the UK Betting Market

Adam Lawrence discusses the impact of the POCT on the landscape for the UK football trading market.

So, is it really Doomsday on September 30th 2014 with all these big players pulling out of the UK market? Or will we survive and make and find new and better ways to gamble in the future? I believe it will be the latter. Let's be honest and start with the facts: 1) There are very few natural monopolies that exist in this world. Gambling certainly isn't one of them. Less competition for UK punters means a worse deal for UK punters. Some of the monster names pulling out of the UK (and let's be clear, there will be more to come) are ...