The Impact of the Point of Consumption Tax on the UK Betting Market

Adam Lawrence discusses the impact of the POCT on the landscape for the UK football trading market.

So, is it really Doomsday on September 30th 2014 with all these big players pulling out of the UK market? Or will we survive and make and find new and better ways to gamble in the future? I believe it will be the latter. Let's be honest and start with the facts: 1) There are very few natural monopolies that exist in this world. Gambling certainly isn't one of them. Less competition for UK punters means a worse deal for UK punters. Some of the monster names pulling out of the UK (and let's be clear, there will be more to come) are ...

What can Sports Betting Learn from Finance?

Matthew Wright runs CoreSpreads, a financial spread betting platform. In this article he discusses the similarities and differences between modelling and trading financial markets and sports markets.

Sports betting and finance share many common characteristics but for various reasons, such as regulation, the industries have developed different strengths. The area that sits closest to sports betting within finance is financial spread betting/CFD trading and in this article we look at what some of the main differences are and whether sports betting can learn anything from its long lost cousin, financial spread betting. For those not familiar with financial spread betting, providers such as IG, CMC, Core Spreads and City Index are the equivalent to the bookmakers. Lesson#1 – Hedging In general terms bookmakers don’t hedge whereas financial spread betting providers ...

An easy guide to closing out trades

Andrew Colin breaks down the mathematics of hedging your pre-game position, in-play.

Closing out a trade to lock in your profit is one of those basic techniques that everyone should understand, but is surprisingly hard to find explained. So here is a simple account. Closing out a back trade Suppose that you’ve backed a soccer team to win at odds of 10. They do well during the match and the odds drop to 5. The value of your bet has increased in value, but you’re worried that the match could go against you. How do you close, or hedge, the bet before the game ends to lock in your profit? You can do this by ...

Arbitrage of Synthetic Asian Handicap Bets

Andrew Colin discusses how Asian Handicap markets are open to arbitrage opportunities, resulting in guaranteed profits.

Summary This article shows how to implement synthetic Asian handicap bets, and how to construct a Dutch book so that any arbitrage opportunities arising between these synthetic bets and actual bets can be locked in to generate profits, irrespective of the outcome of the match. Expected return is of the order of 0.2% per match, so some degree of automation is vitally important to cover large numbers of matches, as is availability of sufficient liquidity to match bets. Asian handicap bets: the basics An Asian handicap bet is one in which a handicap is assigned to one of the competing teams. The handicap is ...

The Road to Rio

Brazil is the world’s fifth largest country by area. How will the distance factor affect team performance and how can this data be analysed for modelling purposes? Rob Esteva discusses.

Logistical factors are notoriously difficult to quantify when it comes to modelling in football. Distance alone is tough to find conclusions from as the various methods of transport alone can make away matches harder than others. The likelihood is that in most cases other than the extreme ones, a calculated home advantage takes most scenarios into consideration. That is not quite the case for final tournament however. There is one home team, a handful of neighbours, and then a posse of teams from further afield. I wrote a blog almost two years ago about the travel and distance factor in Euro ...

A Trading Evolution; From Football Into Horse Racing

The arms race between global football trading syndicates creates genius teams and technology which can be applied to many other sports, but horse racing can be one of the most lucrative, and most challenging.

I have worked as a recruiter, agent, broker and publisher within sports trading for approximately six years. During this time, I have worked with large and small syndicates across Europe, Asia and North America and met a diverse variety of individuals and groups. Approximately 70% of my work has been within football trading, 10% a mix of other sports such as golf and tennis, but the most interesting part, around 20% of my work, is within global horse racing. In football, the trading volumes in Europe and Asia are now so enormous and so established; it is difficult for any market ...