What are the implications of data in football for clubs and bettors?

Tom Worville discusses the potential changes that could occur for both football clubs and bettors, if understanding and application of analytics becomes more widespread

The use of analytics means that clubs can run their scouting unit at a lower cost and pick up players from smaller leagues without having to send scouts to each corner of the globe to look at talent. In the Internet age, this use of resources on scouting trips like this seems very wasteful – when an early look at a player can be done using the numbers. What does this use of data mean for the betting community? Football becomes more unpredictable and therefore harder for bookies to judge. It also means there is going to be an interest in sports ...

Sports Betting Brokers – What, Why and Who?

With sports betting brokerages becoming an increasingly common outlet for many semi-pro, professional and elite traders, Matt Trenhaile discusses these companies, what they do, and how to interact with them.

I would like to pose and try and answer the what, why and who questions about sports betting brokers. What are sports betting brokers, why do they exist and do we need them and finally who are the prominent brokers and who should be using them. A sports betting broker is simply an intermediary between the sports bettor and the bookmaker. Normally they will either take a deposit from the client and hold it and allocate funds within their own large company accounts with one bookmaker or divided among several, or they will actually open one or multiple accounts at the ...

Sports Modelling Research

Dr. Alun Owen discusses the agenda for the Mathsport International Conference, to be held in June 2015, and highlights some of the most interesting aspects of the schedule.

As you may know from my previous postings, I lecture in statistics in Higher Education and have a research interest in the development of predictive models in sport, including football and horse racing. Well, this time of year is conference season in my line of work, and so this month I thought I’d highlight a conference I’m co-organising at Loughborough University which has a few talks which may of interest to some who subscribe to Sports Trading Network. I’m also presenting at this conference on some work I’ve been engaged with looking at predicting the probability of scoring each penalty ...

Fixed-Odds Betting and Traditional Odds

Keith Cheung has a degree in mathematics and works for Betclic Everest Group. In this article, he discusses the probabilities and odds referred to in sports betting.

In fixed-odds betting, the concept of ‘odds’ generally refers to the price, the amount the punter gets back if the bet wins. However, there is another, more traditional, definition of odds – one that can assist our understanding of probability and betting. In statistics, the odds in favour, sometimes known as just the odds, of an event is the ratio of the probability of the event occurring to the probability of the event not occuring. If p is the probability of an event occurring, then the odds for that event are given by: For example, if the probability of event A occurring is 0.4, then the odds of event ...

The Psychology of Manual Trading Sports

Mercedes Van Essen discusses the psychology of the trader; how the mind can be trained to ensure maximum chance of successful, and profitable trading.

Let’s be perfectly honest about it: Trading is often viewed as the domain of gamblers where winning is viewed as pure luck. This is even truer for the area of sports trading, where many an ignorant bystander may completely fail to understand the intricate nature of the game. For starters, any form of trading whether you bet on currencies, stocks, commodities or sports, is a high performance activity if you intend to be consistently successful at it. It requires mental acuity, nimbleness and a high degree of calm focus and detachment from the outcome. In other words: Psychology is over 90% of the ...

Optimal bets for dog and horse races

Andrew Colin PhD, works through the mathematics for how to analyse and optimise your betting on pari-mutuel and tote pools for horse and dog racing.

Given a set of probabilities for the runners in a multi-player competition, how much should you bet on each runner to maximise your expected profits? The standard reference paper for this topic was published by Isaacs over 60 years ago. Unfortunately the presentation is not always easy to follow, so this article presents an alternative approach. Suppose that a pool with runners has amounts bet by oneself, and amounts bet by the rest of the market. The true probabilities of the runners winning the race are calculated from the previous form of the runners. Let  Q  be the total proportion of the pool that is paid out. ...