The Lucky 15

Following on from of his successful Grand National article we are delighted to publish this exclusive content from @mylittletip. Why 97.3% of people should NOT do multiples. Let’s start with…

Categories: Execution & Getting On, Horse Racing, Liquidity, Prices, Professional

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Following on from of his successful Grand National article we are delighted to publish this exclusive content from @mylittletip.

Why 97.3% of people should NOT do multiples.

Let’s start with the basics. Toss a coin and there will be a 50% chance of heads and 50% chance of tails. Over a long period of time the number of heads and tails will level out. Assuming you have single bets if you take Evens (2.0 decimal price) you will break level, take 10/11 (1.9) you will lose, take 11/10 (2.1) you will win. If you grasp that read on!

Now using a 6-sided dice, each number has a 16.67% chance or ‘5/1’ (6.0 in decimal odds). In a nut shell bookmakers will try and offer you 4/1 on a dice throw thus making themselves a long-term profit at your expense. Even worse an example is a multiple where a treble taking 4/1 each dice throw pays 124/1 when the true odds are 215/1. That is why most punters lose and should never do multiple bets. A casual gambler is happy to take 4/1 as he wants a bet and/or a winner. However, a professional gambler is looking for bigger than 5/1 in his quest to make long term profit. Offer a pro gambler three x 6/1 chances on a dice throw and they will try their hardest to get a treble on as well as the true odds which are 215/1 yet they are trying to get 342/1 for a 59% mark up! A pro gambler will ALWAYS maximise an opportunity.

However, there are bets whereby you can actually take 5/1 on the throw of a dice and make a long-term profit, even though on the face of it there is no edge to the bookmaker or the gambler. One such bet is the Lucky 15/31/63 (Lucky 15 consists of 4 singles (ABCD), 6 doubles (AB, AC, AD, BC, BD, CD), 4 trebles (ABC, ABD, ACD, BCD) and one accumulator (ABCD). The reason being is that most bookmakers (not all you need to check first) offer double the odds for one winner (some even treble) and if all selections are successful a 10% bonus (some 25%) on the whole return, not just the accumulator. In this instance, guessing 4 correct ‘dice throws’, the chances are actually 1295/1 but the price they are offering you is 1424.6/1 on the 4fold with the 10% bonus alone so although this will only statistically occur one in 1296 throws, it is a marginal gain and with normal ‘luck’ you will be in front over a long period, but, in the very long run, you will be way in front. Add to that the 10% on the four Trebles (215/1 you get 236.6/1), the six Doubles (35/1 becomes 38.6/1) and the four Singles (5/1 becomes 5.6/1). Also add to that the double the odds on one winner which will happen on the majority of the Lucky 15 bets (again a small % extra but more marginal gain for the punter) so you can see that although it’s a very tiny edge, you have turned it around from breaking level had you done singles. Remember, this is for LONG TERM PROFIT and there will be many lows along the way with the majority of Lucky 15s showing a loss obviously.

Now let’s look at it IF you can get 6/1 for the dice throw. The accumulator odds are 1295/1 on 4 dice throws but you are getting paid 2400/1 which becomes 2640/1 with the 10% all correct Lucky 15 bonus (remember the actual odds are 1295/1, a 103.7% mark up!!!), the Trebles are 343/1 (now 376/1, true price 215/1, a 74.5% mark-up), doubles 48/1 (now 53/1, true price 35/1) and singles 6/1 (6.7/1, true price 5/1).
Even the worst mathematicians amongst you can see as clear as day that the Lucky 15 is miles better value than singles for those who can get 6/1, as the mark ups are massively favoured to the punter, compared to the small margin of a single. Yes, this is only when all four wins, but remember, that is irrelevant as the long-term profit is what makes a professional gambler good as they have brilliant bank roll management and are immune to the ups and downs of winning and losing on a daily basis.

The reason I use this example is that professional gamblers are great at spotting value and often looking for 6/1 on a 5/1 chance and as you can see when multiplied out over numerous dice throws, over numerous years, you will be way more in front than if you had just bet on singles. The normal ‘punter’ however say “Yeah, but you get one winner and you lose” or “Yeah but horse racing is random so you can’t attribute a price”…well sadly there is no helping this type of punter as they can’t think past one bet on a day to day basis, with horrific bank roll management and non-existent staking plans with knee jerk reactions to a few losers etc as they have no concept of statistics, mathematics, probability or profitability. More importantly that type of punter has no idea what computer modelling is! They are just desperately bad gamblers and sadly bookmakers love to exploit them with multiple bets to maximise their profits whilst heavily restricting/banning pro gamblers from doing them.

I honestly feel for them not being able to grasp it. I do however find it abhorrent when these losing gamblers then try to sell ‘tips’ as they are so bad in understanding long term profitability that they lead the unsuspecting betting public down a doomed long-term path, often taking 4/1 singles on 5/1 pokes. This type of punter/tipster is why the bookmakers love to promote the Lucky 15 in betting shops and online. The dice can land on any number, so the daily result is utterly irrelevant in making long term profit IF you have a controlled staking plan. It should be easy to grasp but for some reason only statisticians and pro gamblers take the long term view and bookmakers will continue to make millions from poor tipsters/gamblers sadly, especially on bets such as Lucky 15’s because finding 6/1 a 5/1 chance takes extreme skill and a talent that 97.3% do not have.

So the next time a tipster or punter tell you that a multiple bet with bonuses is a ‘mug’ bet you should be sporting a very wry grin on your face knowing for a fact they are actually one of the 97.3% of losing gamblers as they have just inadvertently shown you their losing hand. They will brag to winning thousands gambling but they cannot even work out the simplest of maths puzzles and will try to hoodwink you with ‘bull’. This type of losing gambler should NEVER bet but if they do, they should stick to singles as the mark up is less than multiple bets for them and therefore their losses will be less in the long run.

These are not my opinions, just facts that will be a bitter pill for some to swallow. Meanwhile, in the real world, the rich get richer at both ends of the spectrum, 2.7% of punters and bookmakers.

Many thanks for your continued loyal following and support.

MLT (MyLittleTip)

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