A basic total shots Ratio (TSR) has been the cornerstone of my attack and defence ratings this season. TSR assumes how much a team dominates a match. This has allowed me to produce more of comprehensive measurement of a team’s strengths and weaknesses. TSR = shots for / (shots for + shots against).

Looking at League 2 I have highlighted a TSR in italics if the top 12 team are above 0.5 and bottom 12 is below 0.49. Bold indicates where a team with a TSR of 0.50 or above is in the bottom 12 and a TSR of 0.49 of below is in the top ten.

Team	P	F	A	Tot	TSR	Pos
Chesterfield	30	12	8.5	20.5	0.58	1
Scunthorpe	30	10.5	10.4	20.9	0.5	2
Oxford	30	9.1	7.6	16.7	0.54	3
Rochdale	29	10.5	8.3	18.9	0.56	4
Burton	29	12.5	9.3	21.8	0.57	5
Fleetwood Town	28	13.4	9.5	22.9	0.59	6
Southend	29	10.4	10.6	21	0.5	7
Newport County	26	10.1	9.9	20	0.5	8
Dag and Red	30	9.4	11.9	21.3	0.44	9
Plymouth	29	10.8	9.8	20.6	0.52	10
Hartlepool	30	10.5	11	21.5	0.49	11
AFC Wimbledon	30	9.5	9.7	19.2	0.5	12
Morecambe	29	10.1	11.5	21.6	0.47	13
York	31	10.1	10	20.1	0.5	14
Cheltenham	29	10	9.1	19.2	0.52	15
Exeter	29	10.3	12.2	22.6	0.46	16
Mansfield	30	9.5	11.9	21.4	0.44	17
Accrington	28	8.1	11.7	19.8	0.41	18
Portsmouth	30	8.3	10.1	18.4	0.45	19
Bury	28	9.3	8.7	18	0.52	20
Bristol Rvs	29	10.3	10.5	20.9	0.5	21
Wycombe	29	8.4	7.8	16.2	0.52	22
Torquay	28	9.8	10.4	20.2	0.48	23
Northampton	28	8.6	11	19.6	0.44	24

Current League 2 table as of 10/02/2014

Based on the table Dagenham have overachieved so far this season from their TSR and therefore should be weaker in the betting compared those teams around them. Accrington had a disastrous start to the season but since October they have on excellence form. Based on their TSR they should be the weakest team in the league but this may be lower due to their extremely poor start. Bury and Cheltenham are two of the stronger teams who should be closer to the playoffs based on this table and their squads.

Sorting the table by TSR this is how the league would look.

Team	P	F	A	Tot	TSR	Pos
Fleetwood Town	28	13.4	9.5	22.9	0.59	6
Chesterfield	30	12	8.5	20.5	0.58	1
Burton	29	12.5	9.3	21.8	0.57	5
Rochdale	29	10.5	8.3	18.9	0.56	4
Oxford	30	9.1	7.6	16.7	0.54	3
Plymouth	29	10.8	9.8	20.6	0.52	10
Cheltenham	29	10	9.1	19.2	0.52	15
Bury	28	9.3	8.7	18	0.52	20
Wycombe	29	8.4	7.8	16.2	0.52	22
Scunthorpe	30	10.5	10.4	20.9	0.5	2
Southend	29	10.4	10.6	21	0.5	7
Newport County	26	10.1	9.9	20	0.5	8
AFC Wimbledon	30	9.5	9.7	19.2	0.5	12
York	31	10.1	10	20.1	0.5	14
Bristol Rvs	29	10.3	10.5	20.9	0.5	21
Hartlepool	30	10.5	11	21.5	0.49	11
Torquay	28	9.8	10.4	20.2	0.48	23
Morecambe	29	10.1	11.5	21.6	0.47	13
Exeter	29	10.3	12.2	22.6	0.46	16
Portsmouth	30	8.3	10.1	18.4	0.45	19
Dag and Red	30	9.4	11.9	21.3	0.44	9
Mansfield	30	9.5	11.9	21.4	0.44	17
Northampton	28	8.6	11	19.6	0.44	24
Accrington	28	8.1	11.7	19.8	0.41	18

Five of the top six teams, with the highest TSR, are in top six positions in the league table. Scunthorpe in second place have 0.5 TSR, however, as the season has progressed they have improved. Wycombe produce so few shots their attack is one of the weakest in the division. They have only scored 0.95 goals on average in their last 20 matches. For this reason, their TSR and league position is acceptable.

The graph shows slight correlation to the league position and TSR.

League 2 is the tightest of all the English Professional divisions in every aspect. For example, points separating the teams, TSR and total goals. For this reason, I have difficulty backing a 0.5 jolly with high confidence in this division. For example, Newport vs. AFC Wimbledon on 11^th February. The opening odds were a -0.5 line 2.0 / 1.92 on 16^th February. On the 10^th February the odds are now -0.5 2.11 / 1.82. FYI my supremacy is 0.42 on pure ratings, AFC Wimbledon have no less than six players missing, however.

Relative shot Ratio (RSR)

There is likely to be some under/over estimations based on previous performances. First I looked at how a team is performing against that average = (shots for – league average shots) + shots for. Then the same for shots against = (shots against – league average shots) + shots against.

For example, Accrington average 8.1 shots per match and concede 11.7 shots per match. Comparing this against an average team in the division an average team will have 10.06 shots per match and concede 10.05 shots per match.

Relative shots for: (8.1 – 10.05) + 8.1 = 6.14

Relative shots against: (11.7 – 10.06) + 11.7 = 13.34

RSR: 6.14/ (6.14 + 13.34) = 0.32

The table is now sorted on the RSR

Team	P	F	RF	A	RA	RSR	TSR	Pos
Chesterfield	30	12	13.9375	8.5	6.941667	0.67	0.58	1
Fleetwood Town	28	13.4	16.7375	9.5	8.941667	0.65	0.59	6
Burton	29	12.5	14.9375	9.3	8.541667	0.64	0.57	5
Rochdale	29	10.5	10.9375	8.3	6.541667	0.63	0.56	4
Oxford	30	9.1	8.1375	7.6	5.141667	0.61	0.54	3
Cheltenham	29	10	9.9375	9.1	8.141667	0.55	0.52	15
Wycombe	29	8.4	6.7375	7.8	5.541667	0.55	0.52	22
Plymouth	29	10.8	11.5375	9.8	9.541667	0.55	0.52	10
Bury	28	9.3	8.5375	8.7	7.341667	0.54	0.52	20
Newport County	26	10.1	10.1375	9.9	9.741667	0.51	0.5	8
York	31	10.1	10.1375	10	9.941667	0.50	0.5	14
Scunthorpe	30	10.5	10.9375	10.4	10.74167	0.50	0.5	2
Southend	29	10.4	10.7375	10.6	11.14167	0.49	0.5	7
Bristol Rvs	29	10.3	10.5375	10.5	10.94167	0.49	0.5	21
AFC Wimbledon	30	9.5	8.9375	9.7	9.341667	0.49	0.5	12
Hartlepool	30	10.5	10.9375	11	11.94167	0.48	0.49	11
Torquay	28	9.8	9.5375	10.4	10.74167	0.47	0.48	23
Morecambe	29	10.1	10.1375	11.5	12.94167	0.44	0.47	13
Exeter	29	10.3	10.5375	12.2	14.34167	0.42	0.46	16
Mansfield	30	9.5	8.9375	11.9	13.74167	0.39	0.44	17
Portsmouth	30	8.3	6.5375	10.1	10.14167	0.39	0.45	19
Dag and Red	30	9.4	8.7375	11.9	13.74167	0.39	0.44	9
Northampton	28	8.6	7.1375	11	11.94167	0.37	0.44	24
Accrington	28	8.1	6.1375	11.7	13.34167	0.32	0.41	18

The overall RSR rankings are not much different to TSR. If I compare the RSR of Accrington and Chesterfield the ratio is 0.68:0.32. This looks more realistic if comparing their TSR of 0.58:0.41.

The drawbacks are is the quality of data, the quality of shots and where the shot was from. Also, some teams are set up to counter attack and therefore may have less shots as they undoubtedly soak up more pressure. Team news is an obvious one. Transfers and squad improvement or decline through injuries. The area I need to improve my work is now making sure I apply this correctly. I would be grateful if anyone can help with applying this to my attack and defence rating system.